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Integrated Regional-Global Database and Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling for the See the Powerpoint presentation at the Amman Workshop 1. Introduction The coming challenges for the MENA countries, such as the process of economic transition, the next trade negotiations within the WTO, the EU enlargement, the Euro-Med Agreements, the Arab Free Trade Area initiative, the Kyoto agreement on environment, etc. need multi-country, multi-sector dynamic economic analysis and forecasting in a global framework. 2. Main Objectives The primary goal of the MenaMod Research Program is to develop multi-sectoral general equilibrium models for all the countries of the MENA region linked to each other and to similar models of the most important trade partners of the region. This multi-national and multi-sectoral general equilibrium model system focusing on the MENA region, hereafter called MenaMod, is designed to facilitate multi-country, multi-sector analyses for the MENA economies in a worldwide context. MenaMod will be used in macroeconomic and sectoral policy analysis as well as in macro and sectoral economic forecasting. The MenaMod Research Program is a long-term project intended to develop and become a tool not only for research but especially an operational tool to help policy makers in economic management in the MENA countries. A responsible use of the integrated data base/model framework can indeed help policy makers to face the major challenges of the near future (stabilization and adjustment, new trade negotiations, more liberalization, regional integration, integration into the world economy, management of natural resources, environmental policies, etc.). The MenaMod program also aims at fostering regional cooperation among researchers, policy makers, and government agencies. It is indeed clear that only an intensive and long-run cooperation among the researchers and an ongoing support from the institutions of the region can provide a reliable foundation to the development of this project. Another aim of this project is to develop skills in the MENA countries by training interested researchers, graduate students, and civil servants. To this end, intensive regional courses will be organized in policy analysis using the MenaMod model. 3. Research Strategy MenaMod is developed in a multi-national collaborative framework. The research program benefits from the outstanding modeling experience of the EcoMod research fellows and correspondents within the MENA region. 4. Modeling Framework MenaMod is a highly disaggregated dynamic multinational and multisectoral general equilibrium model of the World economy with special emphasis on the MENA region (the model includes individual linked dynamic general equilibrium models for Morocco, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the rest of the Middle-East, the EU, NAFTA, Japan, China, India, South East Asia, Central and South America, Rest of the World). MenaMod is built upon the long and outstanding modeling experiences in the world by a team of researchers within the Global Economic Modeling Network. MenaMod is implemented on the powerful software GAMS. An easy-to-use Windows is currently being developed for policy simulations and result reporting. |
