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Program
Please click here to download the program.
The sessions will take place in the following rooms:
Plenary session: Room H 22.15 Session 1: Room H 13.01 Session 2: Room H 13.02 Session 3: Room H 13.08 Session 4: Room H 13.09 Session 5: Room H 22.13 Session 6: Room H 22.15
8:00 – 8:45 Registration
8:45 – 9:00 Welcome and opening session
Ali Bayar, Free University of Brussels (ULB) and EcoMod André Dramais, European Commission
9:00 – 10:30 Plenary session I
General equilibrium modeling
Chair: Victor Ginsburgh
Sherman Robinson Estimation, calibration and validation of computable general equilibrium models
Glenn Harrison, Thomas Rutherford, David Tarr Trade liberalization, poverty and efficient equity
10:30 – 11:00 Coffee break
11:00 – 12:30 Parallel sessions
Session 1: Modeling: new developments
Chair: André Dramais
Stephen Huxley The greatest good for the greatest number: data envelopment analysis and non-linear programming as tools for estimating the efficiency of foreign aid allocations for developing countries
Nurhan Davutyan Efficiency enhancement in the tourism sector: some Turkish examples
Robert Lundmark, Patrick Söderholm Technical change in the Swedish pulp and paper industry: a general index approach
Session 2: Monetary issues
Chair: Khalid Sekkat
Michel Beine, Agnès Benassy-Quere, Estelle Dauchy, Ronald McDonald The impact of the central bank intervention on forecast heterogeneity
Andrew Hughes Hallet, Christian Richter Are capital market efficient? Evidence from the term structure of interest rates in Europe
Fritz Breuss Is ECB's monetary policy optimal already?
Session 3: Environment
Chair: Paul de Boer
Inge Mayeres, Denise Van Regemorter Modelling the health related benefits of environmental policies within a CGE model for the EU-15 countries
Cathrine Hagem, Ottar Maestad, Hege Westskog Effective enforcement and imprecise deterrents: impacts of punishment on punishers via the markets for quotas and energy
Johannes Bollen Climate policies and R&D
Session 4: Growth
Chair: Bertrand Candelon
Dominique Guellec, Bruno Van Pottelsberghe From R&D to productivity growth: the sources of knowledge spillovers and their interaction
Romulo Chumacero, Rodrigo Fuentes On the determinants of the Chilean economic growth
Durmuş Özdemir Growth, liquidity constraints, credibility and the effects of shocks under a non-credible government
Session 5: Regional economics
Chair: Maurizio Bussolo
Matthias Ross The impact of the infrastructure and taxes on regional agglomerations
Edson Domingues, Eduardo Haddad Analyzing the spatial impacts of tax policies: an interregional CGE framework for Brazil
Serge Coulombe International trade, interprovincial trade, and provincial growth
12:30 – 14:00 Lunch
14:00 – 15:30 Parallel sessions
Session 1: General equilibrium modeling
Chair: Denise Eby Konan
Dirk Willenbockel Specification choice and robustness in CGE trade policy analysis with imperfect competition
Maurizio Bussolo, John Whalley How many forms do I have to fill in to export my coffee? The role of transaction costs in explaining economic performance in Latin America
Patricia Augier, Michael Gasiorek Rules of origin and international trade: the case of the EU, the Mediterranean and the CEEC's
Session 2 : Environment and infrastructure
Chair: Serge Coulombe
Emre Alp, David Clark, Robert Griffin, Vladimir Novotny The application of benefit transfer in a Wisconsin watershed
Radha Balkaransingh The impact of public infrastructure on private costs: the case of Japan
Bob Constantin, Adriana Grigorescu, Radu Serban Efficient management of thermoelectric power station through a model of nonlinear optimization
Session 3: Environment
Chair: Johannes Bollen
Maria Pempetzoglou, Stella Karagianni A general equilibrium model for assessing the economic effects of carbon taxation in Greece
Sebnem Sahin Turkey facing the global change problem: an economic analysis within a regional general equilibrium model with a tradable emission permits system
Johan Eyckmans, Denise Van Regemorter, Vincent Van Steenberghe Is Kyoto fatally flawed? An analysis with MacGEM
Session 4: Public finance
Chair: Knud Jorgen Munk
Sandro Momigliano, Stefano Siviero The budget and economic activity in Italy in the nineties: an appraisal using the Bank of Italy’s quarterly econometric model
Martin Dietz, Christian Keuschnigg Capital income tax reform in Switzerland
Lorenzo Pozzi Government debt, imperfect information and fiscal policy effects on private consumption. Evidence for 2 high debt countries
Session 5: EU enlargement
Chair: Andries Brandsma
Fritz Breuss Consequences of EU enlargement for macroeconomic stability in Euroland
Anders Due Madsen, Lars Haagen Pedersen, Morten Lobedanz Sorensen Economic consequences for Denmark of EU enlargement
Ali Bayar The impact of the EU enlargement on the MENA region
15:30 – 16:00 Coffee break
16:00: 17:30 Parallel sessions
Session 1: Modeling Asian economies
Chair: Jong-Hwan Ko
Li Ninghui China’s food economy and its implications for the rest of the world
Nguyen Chan, Tran Kim Dung Development of CGE model to evaluate tariff policy in Vietnam
Jean-Louis Brillet, Li Ninghui, Liu Xiaoyue China accessing WTO: interpreting the issues using the NBS annual model
Session 2: Business cycles
Chair: Michel Beine
Bertrand Candelon, Alain Hecq Short-run attractor regimes and the cyclical behavior of output and prices
Ali Bayar, Bertrand Candelon Entry and exit dynamics in business cycles
Guillaume Guerrero Markov-switching models of business cycle: can the econometric model detect the growth regime?
Session 3: Sustainable development
Chair: Denise van Regemorter
Brant Liddle Sustainable development and globalization in a world with unequal starting points
Maurizio Bussolo, Jeff Round Redistribution and poverty: experiments with a CGE model for Ghana
Arnaud Fougeyrollas, Pierre Le Mouël, Paul Zagame Endogenous growth in an applied general equilibrium model for Europe (GEM-E3)
Session 4: Transport and industrial policy
Chair: Stephen Huxley
Kurt Kratena, Wilfried Puwein Road pricing for heavy goods vehicles transport: assessing the economic impact in a disaggregated macroeconometric model
Knud Jorgen Munk Assessment of the introduction of road pricing using a computable general equilibrium model
Helena Lenihan Evaluating the effects of Irish industrial policy: estimating predictive (logit) models for deadweight and displacement
Session 5: Regional integration
Chair: Marinos Tsigas
Selahattin Bekmez Is integration with Europe good enough for the Turkish producers?
Peter Egger, Michael Pfaffermayr The pure effects of European integration on intra-EU core and periphery trade
Raine Hermans Economic integration and spatial agglomerations - European regions in a synthetic free trade area analysis
20:00 Conference Diner at the Hotel Conrad, Place Stéphanie.
Friday, July 5th:
9:00 – 10:30: Parallel sessions
Session 1: Modeling: new developments
Chair: André Dramais
Wojciech Charemza, Svetlana Makarova, Victoria Parkhomenko LAM modelling of East European economies: methodology, EU accession and privatisation
Maria Demertzis, Marga Peeters, Peter Van Els EUROMON: The Netherlandsche Bank's multi-country model for policy analysis in Europe
Arnaud Fougeyrollas, Pierre Le Mouël, Paul Zagame An innovative detailed macro-sectoral econometric model for Europe: NEMESIS
Session 2: Tax policy
Chair: Carlos Martinez Mongay
Ali Bayar, Ghazi Ben-Ahmed, Frédéric Dramais, Joffrey Malek-Mansour The impacts of the American new steel policy on the international steel markets
Marinos Tsigas, Patrick Canning Implications of tax policies for U.S. food and agriculture: a multiregional, economy-wide approach
Alexis Parmentier The impact of tax progression on employment, hours and wages
Session 3: Finance and development
Chair: Yunus Aksoy
Rodney Reid Net worth and investment under financial liberalization: microeconomic evidence from Jamaica
Roland Füss The financial characteristics between emerging and developed equity markets
Vijay Bhasin Reaction functions of the bank of Ghana: a dynamic approach
Session 4: Middle East and North Africa
Chair: Michael Gasiorek
Motaz Khorshid, Yousef Al-Ibraheem, Adel Assem, Maurice Girgis Estimating economy wide war losses using a computable general equilibrium model
Denise Eby Konan and Keith E. Maskus Quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country
Bouziane Bentabet The effects of Euro-Mediterranean agreements: the case of Algerian economy
Session 5: Ageing
Chair: Paul de Boer
Leon Bettendorf, Thijs Knaap Ageing, interest scenarios and the current account: simulations for the Netherlands
Marco Catenaro, Philipp Rother, Gerhard Schwab Ageing and pensions in the Euro area
Henri de Groot, Paul Tang The impact of ageing on international capital flows in a heterogeneous world with imperfect capital mobility
10:30 – 11:00 Coffee break
11:00 – 12:30 Parallel session
Session 1: Labor market
Chair: Wojciech Charemza
Yin Ya Ping Skilled-unskilled wage / employment disparity – a CGE simulation analysis of the recent UK experience
Gang Gong, Willi Semmler Real business cycles with disequilibrium in the labor market: a comparison of the US and German economies
Christoph Boehringer, Stefan Boeters, Michael Feil Taxation and unemployment: an applied general equilibrium approach for Germany
Session 2: Regional economics
Chair: Marinos Tsigas
Natalie Lubenets, Grigory Fainstein Development of regional specialisation and income under transition into EU: evidence from Estonia
Eckhardt Bode Regional economic interaction and the role of growth poles in East Germany’s convergence process
Qingyang Gu The impacts of fiscal federalism on China’s regional economies: a multiregional modeling approach
Session 3: Trade liberalization
Chair: Kiichiro Fukasaku
Lionel Fontagné, Jean-Louis Guérin, Sébastien Jean Multilateral trade liberalization: scenarios for the new round and assessment
Pascal Bernard The paradox of trade liberalization with renewable resources
Saime Suna-Kayam Welfare consequences of trade reform with sensitivity
Session 4: Middle East and North Africa
Chair: Jasminka Sohinger
Ali Bayar, Ghazi Ben-Ahmed, Paul de Boer GCC countries: pledge for a freer, open-market economy, regional and multilateral aspects
Motaz Khorshid Impact of fiscal reform program on Kuwait’s medium term economic performance: results from a public finance economy-wide interaction model
Mohammad Ali Moradi Nonlinear modeling of inflation in Iran
Session 5: European integration
Chair: Werner Röger
Olivia Galgau, Khalid Sekkat The impact of the single market on foreign direct investment in the European Union
Manuel Antonio da Mota Freitas Martins Macroeconomic performance and policymakers preferences in the Euro area 1972-2001
Frédérique Sibi Optimal monetary policy in the area of the Euro: arbitrage in inflation – output - interest rate adjustment
12:30 – 14:00 Lunch
14:00 – 15:30 Plenary Session II
EU enlargement
Chair: Lionel Fontagné
Andries Brandsma The challenges of the EU enlargement
Wilhelm Kohler Modeling the EU enlargement
15:30 – 16:00 Coffee break
16:00 – 17:30 Parallel sessions
Session 1: Modeling Asia and Oceania
Chair: Jong-Hwan Ko
Kunhong Kim, Viv Hall, Robert Buckle New Zealand's current account deficit: analysis based on the intertemporal optimisation approach
Yiseok Hong The economic effects of free trade areas within APEC
Session 2: Macroeconomic and monetary modeling
Chair: Yunus Aksoy
Ferdy Adam What sense does it make to take into account a Nairu for the forecast of inflation for a very small and open economy like Luxembourg?
Cédric Audenis, Julien Deroyon, Nathalie Fourcade The impact of ICT capital accumulation - a complete macroeconomic framework
Ermelinda Lopes Modelling the demand for money
Session 3: Labor market
Chair: Bertrand Candelon
Kanyarat Bhanthumnavin The Phillips curve in Thailand
Odile Chagny, Frédéric Reynes, Henri Sterdyniak The equilibrium rate of unemployment: a theoretical discussion, and an empirical evaluation in six OECD countries
Peter Flaschel, Hans-Martin Krolzig Wage and price Phillips curves: an analysis of destabilizing wage-price spirals
Ahmed Touil The impacts of financing job creation in Algeria
Session 4: Policy coordination
Chair: André Dramais
Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, Jacob Engwerda, Joseph Plasmans, Bas van Aarle Ex-ante and ex-post co-ordination of macroeconomic stabilisation policies: a game theoretical analysis of the European institutional design
Karl Pichelmann, Werner Roeger Structural reforms in labour and product markets and macroeconomic performance
20:00 – … Beer tasting at the “Grand Place”
Saturday, July 6th:
9:00 – 11:00 Parallel sessions
Session 1: Modeling: new developments
Chair: Dirk Willenbockel
Pascal Jacquinot, Ferhat Mihoubi Marcos: a rational expectation model
Volodymyr Ryaboshlyk Combining general equilibrium and growth models: a new tool for policymaking
Oliver Fritz, Raimund Kurzmann, Gerhard Streicher, Gerold Zakarias Comparing regional structural change: an application of econometric input-output models
Alan Matthews, Ronnie O’Toole Comparing the estimated general equilibrium (GE) and partial equilibrium (PE) price elasticities of demand using IMAGE, a CGE model of Ireland
Session 2: Monetary policy
Chair: Paul de Boer
Eric Meyermans Monetary policy in the Euro area: simulations with the NIME model
Yunus Aksoy On the long-term neutrality of European and US money
Fernando Ballabriga, Carlos Martinez-Mongay Has EMU shifted policy?
Volker Clausen, Bernd Hayo Asymmetric monetary policy effects in the EMU
Session 3: Finance
Chair: Christian Richter
Zoltan Jakab, Andras Mihaly Kovacs Explaining the exchange rate pass-through: some simulations with the NIGEM model
Raja Albqami, Michael Appelgate Does stock market make a difference?
Balazs Egert, Amina Lahrèche-Révil Equilibrium exchange rates and CEE accession economies: are they fit to join the EMU?
Patrick Watson Monetary dynamics in Jamaica: a policy-making perspective
Session 4: Agriculture
Chair: Wilhelm Köhler
Laurent Piet Assessing locally defined environmental policies in the agricultural sector: a multiregional CGE modeling approach
Alexandre Gohin The phasing out of export subsidies: impacts on EU agriculture
Laurent Cretegny Modelling the multifunctionality of agriculture in a CGE framework
Katsuhiro Saito Public investment and the economy-wide effects: an AGE evaluation of agricultural land improvement in Japan
Session 5: International finance
Chair: Roland Füss
Ansgar Belke, Matthias Göcke Real options effects on employment: does exchange rate uncertainty matter for aggregation?
Rainer Frey Exchange rate volatility and international trade - some GARCH estimations stress the importance of trade diversification
Irfan Civcir The long-run determinants of dollarization in Turkey
Jerome Stein, Fleming Wendell Stochastic optimal control, international finance and debt
Session 6: Monetary and fiscal policy
Chair: Durmuş Özdemir
Luca Onorante Unique monetary policy in the first two years of EMU: an empirical assessment
Christian Mueller A challenge to the first pillar? The French experience
Doug Hostland Fiscal planning in an era of economic stability
Michael Andersen, Svend Erik Hougaard Jensen, Lars Haagen Pedersen Ageing, fiscal sustainability, and occupational pensions
11:00 – 11:30 Coffee break
11:30 – 13:30 Plenary Session III
Environmental modeling
Chair: Pierre Valette
Johan Eyckmans, Henri Tulkens Simulating coalitionally stable burden sharing agreements for the climate change problem
Frédéric Ghersi IMACLIM-POLES: A tentative bridge across the bottom-up/top-down gap energy modeling
Johannes Bollen, Ton Manders Relocation of EU industries from the Kyoto protocol. New insights from a new WorldScan model
13:30 – 13:45 Closing session
Ali Bayar, Free University of Brussels and EcoMod André Dramais, European Commission
Information and Local Arrangements
Questions related to local arrangements should be addressed to Ms Anouk Verlinden: Email: anouk.verlinden@ecomod.net
Tel:+32-2-650 3988 Fax: + 32-2-650 4137 |
